Is using Windows Dumb? It will be.

That was a real question, asked by someone considering buying a new computer. It surprised me: I've been seeing more people asking if they should consider Mac or Linux (mostly Mac, very little Linux), but this question goes way beyond that. It made me pause; the answer is complicated.

It's certainly not "dumb" to buy a Windows machine today. I have to quickly qualify that by saying that I think most people would be better off with a Mac, except (of course) those that need certain Windows only apps on a daily basis. Even those folks could use VM software to run the Microsoft stuff but I wouldn't recommend that right now unless it's casual use.

I'll also add that if you are an experienced XP user, you may really hate Vista. But that doesn't make it "dumb". It's just different. Well, slower, more annoying and possibly more frustrating, but if you aren't installing it on old hardware or hooking up hardware that it doesn't have drivers for, you probably won't see any of that. You may find Vista to be "just fine".

Now yes, I do believe that Vista will become like Microsoft ME - an unloved orphan. But that's later, and if you are smart enough to be asking that question now, you'll be smart enough to dump Vista before it becomes embarrassing. Maybe you'll buy a Mac then, maybe it will be Linux or maybe Microsoft will pull a rabbit out of its hat and actually recover its position.

Not that I think that's going to happen. I think Microsoft is fading away and that owning a Windows operating system indeed WILL be dumb someday. It's not now, but it will be.

So why not buy a Mac now? Sure - why not? But Macs could be "dumb" in five years too. There's a lot of stuff going on that could change computing as we know it. Research in battery technology meets research in lowering power requirements and maybe everything is portables. Virtualization could change everything. A lot of things COULD happen, but I see one that is almost certain.

The Great Move to the Living Room

Social changes may move the great mass of "computer use" (web surfing, email) to the living room as TV sets begin to offer these features. Real "computers" may only be found in use in offices or by hobbyists. For a great many people, that almost certainly will be the case - and I doubt that the OS will be Windows or Mac.

I see this as inevitable. I almost always bring my laptop when we watch TV. It's not that I'm still working, but that we want to look things up. Let's imagine a 60 inch screen with The Simpsons playing in the middle and I'm doing an web search in the upper left hand corner while my wife uses her own keyboard and mouse to answer some email down on the right. That's coming, and when it does, why do I need a computer? Well, I do because I have a business to run out of my house, but a lot of people would need only the TV.

Would it be dumb to own a Windows computer then? You betcha, and that's another reason I see Microsoft getting weaker. Those TV's need an OS, but it sure doesn't need to be Microsoft. Poof - a giant part of Microsoft's business disappears almost overnight.

Apple has Apple TV but that doesn't begin to match what will come. Apple is constrained from opening that up to what people want because the business model for that needs it closed. TV manufacturers aren't hemmed in by the need to sell through iTunes - they can put in a Linux OS and two or three wireless keyboard/mouse ports and give us basic computing at the sofa. I'm sure you can see this as easily as I can - I can resize my browser window and have it under that Simpsons window, I can run X apps.. how long before games that are now in specialized systems like Xbox follow? Not long, I think.

So is buying that Windows machine dumb? No.. it will just seem so in a few years.