Google Adsense and recession

It's a simple question: will a recession hurt the world of on-line advertising?

On the one hand, if business is lousy, ad rates should fall. That's good if you are an advertiser, bad if you are an advertising publisher.

Some folks say that a recession will turn advertisers away from on-line venues and back to the more traditional newspapers, magazines and radio.

On the other hand, if high fuel costs are a factor, people may do more on-line shopping. If brick and mortar stores close (out of business or just chains tightening up), on-line shopping should become more popular and of course that means more on-line advertising.

Right now, we aren't in a recession. We may be on our way into one, but that's yet to be seen. My Adsense income is reflecting the uncertainty people are feeling: some days it plunges to 50% of "normal" figures and on others it shoots up to double my expectations. Therefore, it's telling me nothing about what the future might bring.

Your opinions?