What to make of the iPhone SDK

You may not have been paying much attention to the release of Apple's $99.00 Software Development Kit for the iPhone. If not, there's just one thing to realize: it's a good time to buy Apple stock.

Disclaimer: yes, I own Apple stock. If every reader of this website went out and bought Apple stock, it would surely drive up the price and I'd be that much richer. That's not why I'm saying it's a good time to buy.

First, let's understand something about the lock-in here. Apple can control what software can run on their iPhones. Yes, in theory you can hack the OS and do whatever the heck you want, but the reality is that Apple will be three steps ahead of you and you'll probably just end up with a broken phone.

Now, before you piss and moan about how unfair this is, consider the good side: let's say some third party app gets blessed by Apple and later it's found to have a gaping security hole. Apple can shut that app off almost instantly.. maybe before it gets a chance to do any damage.

Apple apps are going to be sold through iTunes. Oh, how awful.. get over it. Apple's going to take a 30% cut unless you offer your app for free.. duh, *you* set the price. You have to run the SDK on Leopard.. again, get over it: it's about time you bought a Mac anyway.

Here's what's going to happen: everybody and their brother wants in on the gigantic market for iPhone apps. Yeah, the ones that don't use Macs now are going to hate buying one and learning their way around, but they will because this is a big golden egg laying goose and they'd be idiots not to.

Don't think so? I quote Ars Technica:

The big difference for Mac developers is the size of the market. The phone market is bigger than the PC market, and Apple has a much larger chunk. Oh yeah, and don't forget the portable media player market, which might as well be called "the iPod market" at this point. It seems inevitable that the iPhone OS (ne OS X) will sweep across all (non-Shuffle) iPod models in the coming years.

All told, the number of potential customers is staggering, especially to a Mac developer accustomed to selling to a tiny fraction of 5% of a smaller market. Cha-ching, indeed.

So a lot of Macs get sold right there, and once the developers have them, guess what: they also get the "regular" development tools and, since the iPhone runs OS X, porting those iPhone apps to Mac computers is usually going to be trivial.. and of course once you've invested the effort in learning OS X programming, well, you are now empowered to develop and market other apps.. more apps means more ordinary consumer interest, which translates to more hardware sales for Apple (iPhones, computers, iTouch..) and that means..

More Apple everywhere. Less Microsoft.

Apple stock goes up. Microsoft goes down.

If you don't already own a Mac or an iPhone, you may not understand this. You may think that your Blackberry is fine or that if it isn't the next generation will be. You may think Microsoft's billions are going to let it stay on top. Good for you: I wish you lots of luck.. and you'll need it.